Oscar Predictions 2026: An Early Look Into The Awards Race

Kevin Verma
2 minutes ago
4 min read

Now that we are in October and most of the major fall film festivals have wrapped up, we finally have a much clearer picture of how the Oscar race might be shaping up. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have all had their say, and with the dust beginning to settle, the awards landscape is starting to take form — though, as always, new questions have emerged just as quickly as some old ones have been answered. Early favorites have stumbled, surprise contenders have surged, and the race is proving to be as unpredictable and exciting as ever.

Some early front-runners that seemed unstoppable back in August have lost momentum, while a fresh wave of films and performances are now capturing the industry’s attention. It will be fascinating to see if the Academy once again leans toward its reliable favorites —names like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis — or if young blood will step up to steal the spotlight. Day-Lewis’s long-awaited comeback, directed by his son in Anemone, has created serious buzz and could mark one of the season’s defining performances. Meanwhile, One Battle After Another continues its run as one of the year’s biggest success stories, maintaining impressive momentum across both critics and audiences, even though it might struggle to make a profit at the box office. It came out out swinging with many giving it the tag of a "masterpiece" and has emerged as a major frontrunner despite skipping all the festivals.

Elsewhere, The Smashing Machine has struggled to sustain its early hype despite a strong lead performance, while Sinners has impressively sustained momentum despite releasing very early in the year. Hamnet’s People’s Choice Award win at TIFF has catapulted it firmly into the Best Picture conversation, echoing the path of past crowd-pleasers that went on to Oscar glory. International features, including Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice, too, are thriving this year, with multiple titles showing the potential to break through beyond their own category. On the other hand, After the Hunt — once seen as a serious contender — has crashed out of the race following mixed festival reactions.

Still, the awards season is far from over. A few heavyweights have yet to take the field, with Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, John M. Chu's Wicked: For Good, and James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire And Ash looming on the horizon as potential game-changers. As the industry braces for their arrival, the stage is set for another dynamic and unpredictable Oscar season — one that could see the old guard challenged by fresh voices in what’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive lineups in recent memory.

Now, let’s dive into the above-the-line categories and see where the race currently stands. (Nominees are listed in the order of highest to lowest probability of nomination)