Final Oscar Predictions 2026

Kevin Verma
3 hours ago
3 min read

collage of various Academy Award nominees — 98th Annual Academy Awards

With awards season now entering its decisive phase, the Oscar race has finally sharpened into something resembling a finish line rather than a blur of possibilities. The guild awards, critics’ prizes, and industry chatter have clarified much of what once felt uncertain back in October. While a few late-season releases attempted to disrupt the hierarchy, the Academy’s preferences are becoming clearer by the day. Momentum, narrative, and timing have aligned for some contenders, while others have quietly slipped out of serious contention.

At the center of the race, One Battle After Another has successfully converted its early “masterpiece” reputation into sustained awards dominance. Skipping festivals initially seemed risky, but the film’s critical consensus and strong guild support have kept it firmly positioned as the Best Picture frontrunner. Hamnet, buoyed by its People’s Choice win at TIFF, has held on remarkably well, proving once again that emotional resonance and broad appeal still matter deeply to Academy voters. Meanwhile, Sinners has completed an impressive long-game campaign, defying its early-year release disadvantage and emerging as one of the season’s most resilient contenders.

In the performance categories, the landscape this year feels surprisingly less competitive than usual, with clear frontrunners emerging early but still plenty of uncertainty bubbling underneath. Lead Actor is steadily settling down and with a lot of certainty, so is Lead Actress. That said, both lead acting races still have one nomination slot very much up in the air, leaving room for late surges or unexpected misses. Supporting Actor currently looks like the most settled category on paper—but awards season has a way of humbling certainty—while Supporting Actress remains wide open, with genuine scope for surprises and high-profile snubs on nomination morning, which may come as ‘wicked’ surprise to many.

Late arrivals made noise but stopped short of reshaping the race. Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme earned passion and looks to be very much on the up, while John M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good is losing steam but may still perform strongly in tech categories. Avatar: Fire And Ash made some early noise but never came close to dominating the above-the-line conversation. International contenders like Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent remain potent threats, particularly in screenplay and acting races. As final ballots loom, this Oscar season looks less chaotic than expected—but no less competitive, with prestige, popularity, and narrative all colliding at just the right moment.

With that in mind, this is a year that feels ripe for risk-taking. I’m very much in the mood to take a few big swings with these predictions—leaning into gut instincts, late momentum, and the Academy’s long history of surprises. Some of these picks may feel bold on paper, but in a season this fluid, playing it safe feels like the bigger gamble.